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Gregory H. Adams Update

Aug 19

HOW RELATIVELY LOW RISK BUYING OPPORTUNITIES FORM IN THE STOCK MARKET

The past several days have been a good example of the kind of increase in market volatility we expect as the stock market continues to march toward the 2020 election. The week included a decline of 800 Dow points, which was blamed on the yield curve inverting, the possibility of which has been apparent for weeks. The gyrations in the price would suggest that there has been a substantial change in the dynamics of the supply and demand balance, but so far our supply and demand metrics have been relatively less impacted than the sharp 800 point decline in the Dow would seem to suggest. At this point in its development, the correction looks to be on schedule to become a correction in an on going bull trend. This could change of course, but for now the historic markers of a classic major top forming in the stock market remain mostly absent.

TATY   —   A REPRESENATIVE OF A FAMILY OF STRATEGIC SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

TATY is shown above in the first chart above in yellow with the S&P-500 overlaid in red and blue candle chart format.

This week’s print of 145 for this indicator appears to have completed a bottom in the red zone, which historically is indicative of demand in the superior position relative to supply. I have no record of a major top forming when this strategic indicator is forming bottoms on the weekly chart in, or near, the red zone. So, far as long as TATY continues to paint bottoms in the red zone the bull trend is likely to remain viable, which suggests another assault on new all-time highs once the current correction has ended. However, once the correction has run its course, it will be important for TATY to continue to improve upon where it paints out its highs, the higher the better for the health of the bull trend. Given the recent volatility in the price, the strength being displayed in the TATY family of strategic indicators is surprising, and could even be characterized as atypical.

The premium/discount to value indicator in the lower panel of the TATY indicator is reflecting a more normal circumstance relative to the atypical behavior of the TATY indicator. The 800 point plunge in the Dow has driven the premium/discount indicator deeply into the discount range, as the indicator is approaching the minus eight level. What we would like to see in the days to come is for TATY to continue to bottom in, or near, the red zone while the premium/discount indicator bottoms, and then turns back up first toward minus three, then on up past the zero line back into positive territory. As these two things are happening, we would like to see the price continue to test the recent low resulting in a large positive divergence between the weakening price, and the strengthening indicators. So for the strategic indicators, we are beginning to see some necessary developments for a bottom in the price, but not likely enough to be sufficient to produce a resumption of the previous bull trend.

SAMMY   —   A REPRESENATIVE OF A FAMILY OF TACTICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

The SAMMY family of tactical indicators are shown above alone, and below with the SPXL 3X leveraged S&P-500 ETF overlaid. Please note that the SPXL ETF is used for reference purposes only.

SAMMY has not yet produced a buy signal, but it is showing some tendency toward the sellers becoming exhausted. Exhausted sellers are a necessary condition for a market bottom, but not sufficient. It takes both evidence of exhausted sellers, and evidence of resurgent demand to confirm an end to a market correction, and/or bear market. At this point there has not been any objective evidence of resurgent demand for stocks. And, ideally that evidence should be some time in the future to allow for the development of a strong positive divergence in the indicators, while the price continues to test the lows. These are the kinds of buy conditions, which result in the potential for very low risk purchases of stocks, or in our case equity ETFs. If these conditions come to pass, then we will use the low risk opportunity to put excess cash to work in equities.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Some of the conditions necessary for a bottom in the stock market are beginning to appear. However, these necessary conditions must be joined by evidence of other positive conditions in order for the mix to become sufficient to produce a low risk tradable bottom. The appearance of objective evidence of exhausted sellers is a necessary condition, but objective evidence of resurging demand must also appear in order to complete the mix necessary to be sufficient to confirm a low risk bottom, and the probable imminent resumption of the bull trend. When both the necessary and sufficient conditions for a tradable bottom are met, then we will consider using excess cash in client accounts for new equity purchases, which would meet our criteria for a low risk entry for putting new money into the equity market.

There are other optional paths for the market, but the outline above is in general how corrections, and/or bear markets end, which produce low risk buying opportunities, which in turn yield profitable trades, or investments over time. This classic process drives the weak hands out of the market, which creates discount to value situations, which in turn attracts long term investors to the perceived relative bargains. A rally back to new all-time highs, which begins without both the necessary and sufficient conditions having been met would likely be viewed as having a much higher risk profile, and potentially a fragile trap for new purchases. Given the proximity to new all-time highs, the historic length of the post Great Recession recovery, the inverted yield curve, and the uncertainties implied by the looming election; I will view any potential new purchases as optional, and taken only if the necessary and sufficient conditions for prudent risk management are met.

 

DISCLAIMER: Optimist Capital LLC, does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this report, nor is any liability assumed for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon such information. The information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and are for general information only. The data used for this report is from sources deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed for accuracy. Past performance is not a guide or guarantee of future performance. Optimist Capital LLC, and any third-party data providers, shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who relied on this publication’s contents, which is provided “as is.” Optimist Capital LLC disclaim any and all express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranties of merchantability, suitability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. Our data and opinions may not be updated as views or information change. Using any graph, chart, formula or other device to assist in deciding which securities to trade or when to trade them presents many difficulties and their effectiveness has significant limitations, including that prior patterns may not repeat themselves continuously or on any particular occasion. In addition, market participants using such devices can impact the market in a way that changes the effectiveness of such device. The information contained in this report may not be published, broadcast, re-written, or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from Optimist Capital LLC.

Aug 12

A TEST OF THE LOW?

The stock market is a master of disguise relative to telegraphing its next move. As my late mentor and friend, Paul Desmond, of Lowry Research Corporation often observed: “The role of the stock market is to deceive most investors most of the time”. The events of this past week is certainly another example of this phenomenon.

On Monday the market opened heavy and immediately began to extend the recent decline, and by the close virtually every stock group had been mauled, and nearly every market metric ended in their severely negative range. These kinds of universally negative days are often followed by 3-5 days of rally after which lacking a 90% upside day, or two consecutive 80% upside days, the decline will likely continue until those upside days eventually appear to signal evidence of resurgent demand, and the likely end of the correction. This sequence has been well documented by Lowry Research over the years.

In the current case, on Tuesday a rally began, which by the end of the week had recovered over 50% of the decline (see second chart above), but less than the 62% level. Often if a recovery rally can exceed the 62% level, then the odds favor the correction being over, and the implication is a new assault on the highs would have favorable odds. I had expected a “test” of Monday’s low to develop after a brief bounce, which still may happen, but I must admit that the almost instantaneous recovery of over 50% of the decline was unexpected relative to my decades of observing these kinds of events. And, such a strong recovery does cast a shadow on the ‘test” of the low notion.

To further muddy the picture, Monday’s decline pushed our TATY indicator intraday into threshold of the caution zone surrounding the 115-125 level. A weekly close in the caution zone would have triggered the first step of a “Big Chill” warning needing only a follow on, but stalling recovery rally into, or near, the red zone to actually trigger the warning. However, by the end of the week TATY was showing some signs of painting out a weekly bottom in the red zone signaling that demand was still in the superior position to supply, the dramatic Monday intraday plunge notwithstanding.

TATY —   A FAMILY OF STRATEGIC SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

 

TATY is shown above in yellow with the S&P-500 overlaid in red and blue candle format. TATY finished the week in the red zone at the 140 level. Where this indicator finishes over the next several weeks will be critically important in diagnosing, if the stock market is painting out a major top, or on the contrary is just the stock market experiencing a normal breathing in and out type correction to reinvigorate demand. A weekly print in the caution zone surrounding the 115-125 level would be the first step toward the issuance of a “Big Chill” warning, which has preceded every major top, and major rebound counter-trend rally during bear markets since the 1990’s.

In the current case, should TATY continue its recent history of painting out bottoms in the red zone, then the correction has likely ended, which implies more assaults on new all-time highs to come. However, if the stock market has experienced only the first leg down in an ongoing correction, then how TATY responds to the next leg down, or “test” of the Monday spike low, will become of critical importance. For now I will posture accounts for a “test” of Monday’s low, which means there may arise an opportunity to put excess cash to work should a “test” of the low result in a new tactical buy signal being issued by SAMMY.

SAMMY   —   A FAMILY OF TACTICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

SAMMY shown above alone, and below with the SPXL 3X leveraged S&P-500 ETF overlaid. The SPXL leveraged ETF is for reference purposes only.

SAMMY has not yet issued any new buy signals, as it remains near the outer edge of its recent downtrend. This tactical indicator is implying that there may be a “test” of Monday’s spike low by the price. If there is going to be a new buy signal issued by SAMMY, then for the time being the indicator’s steep decline implies the buy signal may still be several days in the future. Although the price has rebounded sharply, SAMMY is not likely to be able to turn higher quickly given its incorporation of derivative modules into its supply and demand type formulation.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Given the sharp recovery in the price, and the current readings for the strategic big picture balance of supply and demand, there is some reasonable odds that a quick and nasty correction ended on this past Monday’s spike low. However, relative to my decades of experience, this would seem to be a statistical outlier of an outcome. Consequently, I’m inclined to treat the current situation as a complete leg down in a correction with a recovery rally underway, which will likely yield to at least one more leg down before adding excess cash into the market could be considered as a low risk buying opportunity.

I deal only in objective hard numbers generated by the market itself. However, as an unofficial observation there appeared to be a large institution(s) keeping a steady bid under the futures after Monday’s plunge. In another life, we affectionately referred to this kind of market behavior as “the plunge protection team at work”, an outfit whose existence is denied, but some of us are suspicious exists, to the detriment of short sellers. I watched the S&P-500 futures tick by tick on Thursday, and the bid was so strong and persistent that every attempt to decline was met with buying, and some could make the case that the futures were pulling the cash market higher.

 

DISCLAIMER: Optimist Capital LLC, does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this report, nor is any liability assumed for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon such information. The information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and are for general information only. The data used for this report is from sources deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed for accuracy. Past performance is not a guide or guarantee of future performance. Optimist Capital LLC, and any third-party data providers, shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who relied on this publication’s contents, which is provided “as is.” Optimist Capital LLC disclaim any and all express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranties of merchantability, suitability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. Our data and opinions may not be updated as views or information change. Using any graph, chart, formula or other device to assist in deciding which securities to trade or when to trade them presents many difficulties and their effectiveness has significant limitations, including that prior patterns may not repeat themselves continuously or on any particular occasion. In addition, market participants using such devices can impact the market in a way that changes the effectiveness of such device. The information contained in this report may not be published, broadcast, re-written, or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from Optimist Capital LLC.

Aug 5

OPPORTUNITY OR END OF THE LINE FOR THE BULL?

We have made the observation several times over the recent weeks that volatility would likely increase as the stock market marches toward the 2020 election. The events of this past week are a good illustration of why we have made this comment, as the stock market turned from a quiet creeping rally into a decline driven by a whiff of uncertainty courtesy of the occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. However, so far the spontaneous selloff remains well within our expectations, and if certain indicator levels are not breached, we may want to put some excess cash to work upon any objective buy signals being generated.

TATY   —   A REPRESENATIVE OF A FAMILY OF STRATEGIC OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

TATY, shown above in the attached chart in yellow with the S&P-500 overlaid in red and blue candle format, dipped briefly into the red zone surrounding the 140 level, and finished the week at 142, well above the caution zone surrounding the 115 level. If TATY makes a bottom in, or near, the red zone in the days ahead, and the premium/discount indicator in the lower panel turn up from the minus eight level, then that would bode well for the continuation of the bull trend. Holding these levels would be an objective measurement suggesting the weak have been driven from the market, something it does periodically, and which would grade out as a significant positive potentially for the continuation of the bull trend.

SAMMY   —   A REPRESENATIVE OF A FAMILY OF TACTICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

SAMMY is shown above alone, and below with the SPXL 3X S&P-500 ETF overlaid. SPXL 3x is used for reference purposes only.

SAMMY has not yet issued a buy signal, but it is showing some potential that sellers have been motivated, and may soon exhaust themselves for this leg down. However, evidence of exhausted sellesr is a necessary condition, but not a sufficient condition for a new buy signal. A new buy signal will require objective evidence of exhausted sellers, and objective evidence of resurgent demand. Also, the premium/discount indicator shown in the bottom panel of the TATY indicator must turn up to at least the minus three level, which would be indicative that the discount was fleeting as buyers were returning and active. These conditions must be monitored carefully in the days to come, as they are critical factors potentially resulting to a new buy signal.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The current correction appears to be part of the expected increase in volatility as the stock market moves toward the 2020 election, and the likely uncertainties created by that process in a sharply divided electorate. However, volatility in the market is the mother of trading opportunities, so we embrace the days ahead with optimism that our proprietary supply and demand indicators will allow us to profitably navigate both the risks, and opportunities ahead.

 

DISCLAIMER: Optimist Capital LLC, does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this report, nor is any liability assumed for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon such information. The information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and are for general information only. The data used for this report is from sources deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed for accuracy. Past performance is not a guide or guarantee of future performance. Optimist Capital LLC, and any third-party data providers, shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who relied on this publication’s contents, which is provided “as is.” Optimist Capital LLC disclaim any and all express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranties of merchantability, suitability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. Our data and opinions may not be updated as views or information change. Using any graph, chart, formula or other device to assist in deciding which securities to trade or when to trade them presents many difficulties and their effectiveness has significant limitations, including that prior patterns may not repeat themselves continuously or on any particular occasion. In addition, market participants using such devices can impact the market in a way that changes the effectiveness of such device. The information contained in this report may not be published, broadcast, re-written, or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from Optimist Capital LLC.

Jul 29

THE S&P-500 and NASDAQ TOUCH NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS

Last week’s update declared that in the absence of objective evidence to the contrary, we would approach the stock market as being in a continuing bull market. Both the strategic and tactical supply and demand indicators are generating numbers, which are consistent with the balance of forces favoring demand over supply. The S&P-500 and the NASDAQ have responded to this balance favoring demand by touching new all-time highs, even as the bull market in stocks continues to climb a “wall of worry”, and increasingly unreasonable historic valuations. Until there is a measurable change in the balance of supply and demand, I would expect this (creeping) rally to continue in fits and jerks.

TATY   —   A FAMILY OF STRATEGIC SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

TATY is shown in the attachment above in yellow with the S&P-500 overlaid in red and blue candle chart format. TATY finished the week at 156, a reading consistent with strong demand and weak supply.

TATY appears to be settling into rhythm of painting out bottoms in the red zone surrounding the 140 level. As long as this strategic indicator makes bottoms in, or near, the red zone during periods of price weakness, then history suggests that demand will remain sufficient to attempt assaults on new all-time highs (for example, see the March and May declines). A decline in the TATY indicator into the caution zone surrounding the 115-125 level would likely be the first hard evidence that the dynamics of the balance of supply and demand were changing enough toward supply to alert investors to be aware of the rising probability of the issuance of a “Big Chill” warning. Completion of a “Big Chill” warning would compel Alexander and I to consider taking defensive action to protect accumulated profits, and/or protect client portfolios from objective evidence of rising risks in the stock market.

The “Big Chill” warning has been in evidence before every major top, or major rebound top during bear markets, over the last several decades. So the odds favor TATY painting out its normal warning gymnastics again before the next major top. However, clients should be aware that navigating risks in the stock market is an exercise in the successful application of probabilities, as there is no certainty to be had in this business. TATY is the best indicator I’ve ever found during my three decades plus of searching for a major top warning indicator, but that does not guarantee the indicator will not fail at some point, as no indicator in this business of portfolio risk management has ever been perfect. However, as president Lincoln once said about trying to pass the 13th amendment: “I like our odds”. So in like manner, ditto for the odds of TATY calling the next major top. In the absence of objective supply and demand evidence to the contrary, we shall continue to treat the stock market as being in a bull trend.

SAMMY   —   A FAMILY OF TACTICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

SAMMY is shown above alone and below with the SPXL 3X S&P-500 ETF overlaid.

The SPXL three times leveraged S&P-500 ETF is only used for reference purposes. SAMMY has failed to be pushed far enough into discount to value territory to issue any new buy signals since MAY. However, SAMMY continues to confirm the MAY buy signals, and the price has responded by touching new all-time highs this past week.

Should the strategic indicators continue to signal a favorable big picture environment, and SAMMY flashes a new buy signal, then we will likely act on the new buy signal by moving excess cash into the market, even in the face of valuation concerns and the big “wall of worry”, which is all too evident in the news media. Why? The answer is the price is a result of the law of supply and demand, the only absolute in stock market. And, if our proprietary indicators say the balance is favorable, then we can undertake new purchases with a reasonable measure of confidence that the price will respond by going higher. It is far better to measure the balance of supply and demand than to attempt to assign cause and effect to events in the news media. The former is an exercise in reasonable odds, and the latter an exercise in futility.

So you find the previous sentence to be an incredible statement? How about this, you have a “magic” newspaper, which publishes next week’s news today, and next week there is a much anticipated economic number coming out, and now you have the number right from your magic newspaper. Well congratulations you have the number, but you still do not know how the markets may RESPOND to the number — if at all! For example, upon the announcement of the Trump victory the S&P-500 futures sold off dramatically in the overnight session, but not long after the NYSE opening the next morning the stock market began a rally, which is still in effect today. Horrific losses were likely incurred by those holding the short the futures positions sold during the night session, when the market rallied the next morning. So much for assigning cause and effect to the news.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Strategic and tactical indicators remain in conditions favoring demand for stocks over supply. Until this dynamic changes toward supply over demand, the odds will favor the continuation of the current (creeping) rally in stocks.

 

DISCLAIMER: Optimist Capital LLC, does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this report, nor is any liability assumed for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon such information. The information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and are for general information only. The data used for this report is from sources deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed for accuracy. Past performance is not a guide or guarantee of future performance. Optimist Capital LLC, and any third-party data providers, shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who relied on this publication’s contents, which is provided “as is.” Optimist Capital LLC disclaim any and all express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranties of merchantability, suitability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. Our data and opinions may not be updated as views or information change. Using any graph, chart, formula or other device to assist in deciding which securities to trade or when to trade them presents many difficulties and their effectiveness has significant limitations, including that prior patterns may not repeat themselves continuously or on any particular occasion. In addition, market participants using such devices can impact the market in a way that changes the effectiveness of such device. The information contained in this report may not be published, broadcast, re-written, or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from Optimist Capital LLC.

Jul 22

RALLY GETTING A BIT FATIGUED IN THE LOOMING DOG DAYS OF SUMMER

Last week’s update said the strategic big picture supply and demand metrics remained favorable, but our tactical indicators were hinting that some consolidation of the recent rally may be needed to reinvigorate demand. The waning tactical indicators were accurate once again, and this past week the stock market has experienced a dust up in volatility, and several attempts to take prices lower. This process does not yet show signs that it may be ending, so I expect the intraday volatility to continue until prices decline enough to reinvigorate waning demand.

Weak demand in the absence of increasing supply equals dull and listless markets. Weak demand coupled with soaring supply equals the stuff of nasty corrections, or the necessary ingredients of an outright bear market. Until evidence to the contrary arrives, the stock market appears to be in the midst of the normal Dog Days of summer vacation blues, which is manifesting in the form of slack demand.

TATY   —   A REPRESENATIVE OF A FAMILY OF STRATEGIC SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

TATY is shown above in the first attachment in yellow with the S&P-500 overlaid in red and blue candle chart format. TATY declined a bit this week to 148, but remains above the red zone, and well above the caution zone surrounding the 115-125 level. A TATY excursion into the caution zone would cast a shadow that slack demand for stocks may be also encountering increasing supply. Every major top, and rebound rally in bear markets, over the last three plus decades have been preceded by TATY first taking an excursion into the caution zone, and then stalling out on the following rally in, or near, the red zone. In the absence of TATY going through this familiar set of chart gymnastics (the “Big Chill” setup), we shall continue to treat the stock market as being in a bull trend. The unexpected appearance of a “Big Chill” warning would compel us to consider taking defensive action regardless of the daily grind of news, which only serves to confuse those analysts trying to assign cause and effect relationships to news events.

SAMMY   —   A REPRESENATIVE OF A FAMILY OF TACTICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

SAMMY, shown above and below, continues to build upon its negative divergence of the last several days, as the price has been marking time just short of new all-time highs. In an ideal world, I would like to see the current price weakness give way to a whiff of panic, which would have the potential to compress a series of tactical indicators into a discount to value situation, which may then be followed by SAMMY issuing a new tactical buy signal. Such a signal would compel me to put excess cash to work in the equity market, even with the price close to new all-time highs. Yes courage would be required to execute such a tactical buy maneuver, but evidence of increasing strength in the balance of supply and demand would tend to shade the probabilities toward reward for new positions, and a penalty for lost opportunity in the event of failing to act on any new buy signal. The objective measurement of the balanced of supply and demand is what is regardless of the level at which the price is trading.

Bull trends tend to last longer than anyone expects, and bull trends also continue in the face of a constant “wall of worry”. Bull markets ignore bad news and go higher, bear markets ignore good news and go lower, just how the stock market does business. The equity market must victimize those trying to rationalize its behavior in the context of the “news”, which is why survival, and profits, are the product of listening only to what the market tells us about its health through objective metrics. This is the equivalent of your doctor making a diagnosis only after a copious number of critical medical tests have been performed, as opposed to the way you may look to him, or her, when you walk into the clinic. The families of indicators represented by TATY and SAMMY are the equivalent of critical “medical” tests for the stock market, and in my opinion are the only objective sources of truth upon which successful risk management and investment decisions can be made.

SAMMY is shown in the second chart by itself, and in the third with the SPXL 3X ETF overlaid. The 3X SPXL ETF  is never traded in client accounts due to its three times leverage, and certain characteristics related to how the product is structured, which may result in the possibility of tracking errors over time. SPXL in the hands of an experienced investor armed with our proprietary indicators can be a reliable and potent trading vehicle, which is why I trade it in family accounts. However, I do agree with the financial industry regulatory authorities that very few Series 7 Licensed Representatives have the appropriate and proven analytical tools, experience, or the skill required to apply SPXL effectively without exposing their clients to excessive risks. Almost all financial advisors are sales people, and not proven and successful stock market operators, which is why studies consistently show that upwards of 90% plus of all Series 7 Financial Advisors never beat the popular stock indexes in one year let alone consistently, and the very few that sometimes do, often take outsized measured risks to do so. Alexander and I are risk adverse Registered Investment Advisers (RIA), and as such we take our fiduciary responsibility very seriously, which is why we do not use SPXL in client accounts.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The weight of the evidence suggests the stock market may continue to be affected by slack demand, as the summer winds down and the Dog Days doldrums loom. However, in the absence of soaring supply, which is not the current condition, slack demand is not likely sufficient to cause investors to be caught in a major bear market. And, major tops and big rebound rallies in bear markets, over the last several decades have been preceded by a “Big Chill” warning. Currently there has not been a “Big Chill” warning, so the bottom line is excess client cash will be put to work should the strategic outlook remain favorable according to our indicators, and our tactical indicators issue a new buy signal. In the absence of a new tactical buy signal, and lack of objective evidence of worsening strategic conditions, then we will continue to hold our core ETF positions, which are long term capital gains qualified, and we will continue to hold our new May purchase of VOO, which is profitable.

DISCLAIMER: Optimist Capital LLC, does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this report, nor is any liability assumed for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon such information. The information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and are for general information only. The data used for this report is from sources deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed for accuracy. Past performance is not a guide or guarantee of future performance. Optimist Capital LLC, and any third-party data providers, shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who relied on this publication’s contents, which is provided “as is.” Optimist Capital LLC disclaim any and all express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranties of merchantability, suitability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. Our data and opinions may not be updated as views or information change. Using any graph, chart, formula or other device to assist in deciding which securities to trade or when to trade them presents many difficulties and their effectiveness has significant limitations, including that prior patterns may not repeat themselves continuously or on any particular occasion. In addition, market participants using such devices can impact the market in a way that changes the effectiveness of such device. The information contained in this report may not be published, broadcast, re-written, or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from Optimist Capital LLC.

Jul 8

“THE EXPERTS WERE SURPRISED” — A FAMILIAR PHRASE IN THE FINANCIAL MEDIA

Greetings from Château des Fines Roches.

We have made our way from Paris down through the Alps to Provence. As this is being written dusk is creeping across the vineyards surrounding Chateauneuf du Pape, as we are finishing off a wonderful dinner overlooking a valley filled with vineyards, which produce world famous wines. The nearby village of Tavel promotes itself as producing the “Premier Rose de France”, and for those of you, which know your wine, any vintage of a Chateauneuf du Pape is desirable. There are many reasons France is the most visited country in the world!

Americans, which have never traveled in Europe, are often surprised by what they find.

Paris is obviously a one of a kind city with very large open spaces in the old section of the huge metropolis. One can walk out of the Louvre, and then look down the Champs Elysees and see the L’Arc de Triomphe far in the distance, or walk over to the beautiful Jardin de Tuileries, which covers many acres. The Opera House, Napoleon’s Tomb, The Galleries Lafayette, and for those of you in good physical shape the Eiffel Tower are all in walking distance, as are other museums and notable venues along the river. However, for Notre Dame I would recommend taking a taxi. On the day we visited there was lots of heavy equipment and construction crews attempting to stabilize the stone walls, which are still standing, but in various stages of damage after the intense fire consumed the roof, which collapsed into the interior. Money for the restoration is pouring in, but realistically it will likely take years, if not decades for a complete restoration of the church.

Folks taking a stroll along the narrow streets just off the Avenue de Rivoli may feel as if they have strayed into a bad section of town, until they walk through the door of one of the salons, copious in number in the area around the Louvre. Once inside the salons turn into marble palaces hosting names like Chanel, or other haute fashion brands. This phenomenon happens all across France, and other European cities, given the long history of the region, as large cities grew up around the original ox cart roads, often ancient Roman roads. The exterior of the weathered stone buildings often look tired and run down, an appearance accentuated by the very narrow streets.

For example, last year we arrived in the French town of Annecy, and followed the GPS to our B&B, which Paige had researched carefully in advance. As we arrived at the GPS destination I began to wonder, if the internet had handed us some “fake news” about our B&B. The picture above was taken from the street, as I waited double parked for Paige to try and locate an entrance, and our host to direct us to our private parking, a necessity if you rent a car in France. Our apartment, hidden behind the rusty metal gate pictured above, turned out to have been the home of the area’s Roman Governor centuries ago, and is now an elegantly restored multi-floor B&B complete with the Governor’s huge wine cellar, which is still in use. And, a couple blocks away the area turned into a gorgeous and walkable historic area with a river running through it, flowing from the lake with large promenades several blocks away. The old cliché “don’t judge a book by its cover” comes to mind.  Even seasoned travelers can be surprised by what they find as they ramble off the tourist paths in France.

So what does any of this have to do with the stock market? Well for those of us, which have been following the markets for a few decades, the phrase “the experts were surprised” comes to mind.  While we have been in France there has been an article in the financial media by an “expert” forecasting a soon to be complete meltdown of the stock market, and another article by another “expert” calling for a run-away bull market. The authors of these articles have been quoted in the financial media over the years. It appears inevitable that one, or both, of these fellows may be “surprised” at some point by what actually happens going forward. Me, I want my wife to be pleasantly surprised by once again finding a jewel of a destination off the beaten path in France, but Alexander and I are always working diligently to prevent our clients from being exposed to costly market surprises.

As the S&P-500 approaches the round number of 3000, the rally may encounter some resistance, as round numbers tend to become psychological barriers, which often take multiple attempts to penetrate. The financial media may make much ado about this next milestone, so over the days and weeks to come we will be briefing client’s only about the balance of supply and demand for stocks, and not the news, or some prediction du jour by the “experts”, which are often surprised!

CLIENT AND RESEARCH CUSTOMER UPDATE FOR THE WEEK ENDING July 5, 2019

 

These weekly updates have been making the case that the balance of supply and demand remains favorable, and last week’s update stated that any positive catalyst would likely result in the popular stock indexes touching new all-time highs. New all-time highs were touched during this past week’s holiday shortened trading. Given that the balance of supply and demand continues to remain favorable, the  potential for additional new all-time highs, perhaps after several attempts to break through the psychological barrier of S&P-500 3000, would appear to be a likely probability. However, clients would do well to remember that markets tend to move in fits and jerks as opposed to in straight lines.

TATY   —   A REPRESENATIVE OF A FAMILY OF STRATEGIC SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

TATY, shown in the chart above in red and blue candle chart format, finished the week at a strong 152, which helped diminish the negative divergence, shown by the orange down sloping line, of the prior two weeks, but the negative divergence remains. Only a TATY bottom in, or near, the red zone surrounding the 140 level will assuage my lingering concern about this negative divergence with the rising price. However, new all-time highs are new all-time highs, so for now we will just monitor the divergence, as concern is not the same as being compelled to take action, given that the objective measures of supply and demand remain favorable.

SAMMY   —   A REPRESENATIVE OF A TACTICAL FAMILY OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

SAMMY, shown above and below, alone and with the SPXL 3X ETF overlaid, did not issue any new buy signals this week, as the stock market continued to touch new all-time highs. The new highs reaffirmed the previous two buy signals issued in May. So for now we simply hold our core positions, and the recently added May purchase and let the market work for us.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The balance of supply and demand remains favorable, and both our core positions, and our recently added position purchased in May continue to touch new all-time highs. Until the balance becomes more of a concern, we will hold all our longs, and let the market work for us.

DISCLAIMER: Optimist Capital LLC, does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this report, nor is any liability assumed for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon such information. The information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and are for general information only. The data used for this report is from sources deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed for accuracy. Past performance is not a guide or guarantee of future performance. Optimist Capital LLC, and any third-party data providers, shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who relied on this publication’s contents, which is provided “as is.” Optimist Capital LLC disclaim any and all express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranties of merchantability, suitability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. Our data and opinions may not be updated as views or information change. Using any graph, chart, formula or other device to assist in deciding which securities to trade or when to trade them presents many difficulties and their effectiveness has significant limitations, including that prior patterns may not repeat themselves continuously or on any particular occasion. In addition, market participants using such devices can impact the market in a way that changes the effectiveness of such device. The information contained in this report may not be published, broadcast, re-written, or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from Optimist Capital LLC.

 

Regards,

Gregory H. Adams

 

Jul 1

Wall Street Goes On Vacation

The second quarter has ended with the Dow and S&P-500 holding on to most of their gains for the year, and threatening once again to touch new all-time highs. However, investors on Wall Street tend to become more interested in weekends in the Hamptons, or long vacations to other destinations as the Dog Days of summer approach. This time of year volume tends to decline and trading is often dull and listless, as the players take a break and go on vacation. This past week the trading did turn dull, and the S&P-500 futures contract traded in a tight ranges intraday, which was blamed on waiting for news coming out of the G-20 meeting in Japan. Given the current condition of the balance of supply and demand, any positive catalyst in the near term has the potential to push the popular stock indexes to new all time highs. However, the developing negative divergence in the TATY strategic indicator mentioned last week is still in place, and is beginning to cast a shadow on the continuing strength of the rally.

TATY   —   A FAMILY OF STRATEGIC SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

TATY, shown above in the first attachment in yellow with the S&P-500 overlaid in red and blue candle chart format, continues to paint out numbers above the red zone, albeit with a negative divergence shown by the down sloping red line. When TATY is making bottoms in, or near, the red zone surrounding the 140 level, bull trends tend to continue in the price. This condition can linger for weeks, or months, as TATY bottoms near the red zone are objective measurements of the favorable balance of demand over supply. While no indicator is perfect in this exercise of navigating uncertainty in the markets, it would likely take an excursion in the TATY indicator into the caution zone surrounding the 115-125 level to signal a change in the balance significant enough to threaten the continuation of the bull trend. So, the strategic picture bottom line is conditions remain favorable for new all-time highs, but the growing negative divergence in the indicator suggests any new all-time highs may only be marginal, as the rally is likely to attempt to struggle higher in the face of the growing negative divergence.

SAMMY   —   A FAMILY OF TACTICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

SAMMY did not issue any new buy signals this past week, as the rally in the price suggested by SAMMY’S most recent two buy signals (vertical blue lines) issued in May has crept higher. SAMMY is shown above in the second chart by itself, and below with the SPXL 3X leveraged ETF overlaid. As stated previously, SPXL is traded only in selected family accounts, and never in client accounts. Taken together the current objective measures of supply and demand depicted by TATY and SAMMY suggests that the odds remain favorable for new all-time highs in the stock indexes.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Objective measurements of the balance of supply and demand suggests the odds of the popular stock indexes touching new all-time highs remain favorable. However, the growing negative divergence in the TATY strategic indicator is a concern, and this divergence is suggesting that any new all-time highs may only be marginal in nature, and perhaps fragile should the divergence grow even more negative. A decline of the TATY indicator into the caution zone surrounding the 115-125 level would be an initial warning that the underlying strength in the balance of supply and demand for stocks had weakened to a significant enough extent to perhaps compel us to take defensive action in equity portfolios. The negative divergence with TATY above the red zone is a concern, but a TATY excursion into the caution zone surrounding the 115-125 level would potentially be a call for defensive action on any subsequent rally.

 

DISCLAIMER: Optimist Capital LLC, does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this report, nor is any liability assumed for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon such information. The information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and are for general information only. The data used for this report is from sources deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed for accuracy. Past performance is not a guide or guarantee of future performance. Optimist Capital LLC, and any third-party data providers, shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who relied on this publication’s contents, which is provided “as is.” Optimist Capital LLC disclaim any and all express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranties of merchantability, suitability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. Our data and opinions may not be updated as views or information change. Using any graph, chart, formula or other device to assist in deciding which securities to trade or when to trade them presents many difficulties and their effectiveness has significant limitations, including that prior patterns may not repeat themselves continuously or on any particular occasion. In addition, market participants using such devices can impact the market in a way that changes the effectiveness of such device. The information contained in this report may not be published, broadcast, re-written, or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from Optimist Capital LLC.

Jun 24

NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS, ET AL

These weekly updates have been consistently urging clients to disregard the constant stream of bad news in the financial media, and concentrate only upon what the market itself is telling us about the strength, or weakness, in the balance of supply and demand for stocks. Objective measurements of the balance have continued to show that demand for stocks remains in the superior position to supply. The implication of demand being in the superior position is that the aging bull trend remains viable, and the probability of new all-time highs being touched remains favorable. On Thursday and Friday of this past week new all-time highs were touched by a number of the popular stock indexes, including the S&P-500. Investors also likely earned a quarterly dividend on their holdings this past week as VOO and QQQ often go ex-dividend around June 15 to June 21. I should have confirmation of the exact ex-div date before we leave for France.

TATY   —   A STRATEGIC FAMILY OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

TATY, shown above in the first attachment in yellow with the S&P-500 overlaid in red and blue weekly candle chart format, recently made a bottom in the red zone, which is indicative of strength in the balance of demand over supply. TATY has a long history of remaining above, or painting out bottoms in the red zone surrounding the 140 level, during bull trends. Excursions of this indicator into the caution zone surrounding the 115-125 level are often the initial sign that demand may be becoming vulnerable to increasing supply. So for the time being the odds of the stock market making additional attempts to touch new all-time highs remain favorable. However, astute investors will notice that while TATY did manage to remain above the red zone this past week, it also painted out a concerning negative divergence with its recent strength, as the price touched new highs. This may be a one off, but should this negative divergence persist, or grow worse, then I may elect to cash out our recent long tactical trade of VOO, or a portion thereof. Core long holdings of our VOO and QQQ will remain in place, unless TATY takes the first step toward a “Big Chill” warning by taking an excursion into the caution zone surrounding the 115-125 level. Such an event would then compel us to take perhaps a more defensive posture toward protecting our accumulated gains.

SAMMY   —   A TACTICAL FAMILY OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

SAMMY is shown above in the second attachment alone, and in the third with the SPXL ETF overlaid. Please note that the 3X leveraged SPXL is not traded in client accounts, but is traded in some selected family accounts.

SAMMY issued two buy signals during the recent market volatility, and both are now successful. Tactical trades exist to enhance performance, and some of these may turn into long term capital gains holdings, when coordinated with TATY signals. For the time being we will treat the purchases made after the first SAMMY signal as an intermediate trade subject to daily management. Unfortunately, the second signal did not result in a purchase, as I elected to use it to make an additional purchase on our own terms, and only at an extreme discount to value, but our purchase target price was not touched.

I generally try to make at least two purchases, or more, to dollar cost average into really advantageous prices, but alas the downside is sometimes my targets below the market may miss being executed by pennies, but over time this is the way to buy into a bull trend with the least risks, and why clients need pros like Alexander and I to manage their market risks. Individual investors, regardless of their sophistication and skills, simply cannot do what we do routinely to manage market risks. Even most pros do not have the kinds of tools necessary to employ our strategies and tactics, and even if they did most would lack the courage to pull the trigger, when the golden discounts to value are being offered. Superior market tools proven in the crucible of the market are necessary, but not sufficient for successful trading without the requisite courage to employ them. I’m talking the level of training and courage taught by my Marine Lt. Colonel son-in-law, and his non-commissioned officers, to young Marines bound for hot war zones. The markets Alexander and I operate in are no less an investment war zone requiring proven risk management tools, and most importantly the courage to properly apply them during the chaos attendant with fleeting discounts to value. For example, during the last two SAMMY signals issued when tariffs, inverted yield curves, impeachment, and war with Iran dominated the news of the day.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The longstanding favorable balance of demand over supply has now yielded new all-time highs in the stock market. Our core positions in VOO and QQQ continue to reward clients with both capital gains and dividends. We will continue to employ tactical trades to enhance performance, when buy signals are generated by the SAMMY family of tactical indicators. All our trades, both strategic and tactical, will continue to be managed daily during my vacation in France. For the time being, we will allow our trades to move higher with the rising tide of the aging bull trend, which I suspect may develop as a struggle as opposed to a sprint?

 

DISCLAIMER: Optimist Capital LLC, does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this report, nor is any liability assumed for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon such information. The information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and are for general information only. The data used for this report is from sources deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed for accuracy. Past performance is not a guide or guarantee of future performance. Optimist Capital LLC, and any third-party data providers, shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who relied on this publication’s contents, which is provided “as is.” Optimist Capital LLC disclaim any and all express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranties of merchantability, suitability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. Our data and opinions may not be updated as views or information change. Using any graph, chart, formula or other device to assist in deciding which securities to trade or when to trade them presents many difficulties and their effectiveness has significant limitations, including that prior patterns may not repeat themselves continuously or on any particular occasion. In addition, market participants using such devices can impact the market in a way that changes the effectiveness of such device. The information contained in this report may not be published, broadcast, re-written, or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from Optimist Capital LLC.

Jun 18

A PAUSE AT RESISTANCE ON THE WAY TO NEW ALL TIME HIGHS?

After our tactical SAMMY indicator flashed a buy signal the stock market commenced a strong rally back to our previously identified resistance zone. Given the current status of an array of both strategic and tactical supply and demand indicators, the odds remain favorable for the path of least resistance to remain an eventual assault on new all-time highs. However, the price will likely need some time to overcome this obvious resistance zone, so an assault on new all-time highs will likely be delayed until the stock market has digested the gains made during its sharp rally.

TATY   —   A REPRESENATIVE OF A FAMILY OF STRATEGIC SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

TATY has not touched the 160 level shown by the blue line on the attached first chart since January 2018, when the buying fever broke after the stampede higher following the 2016 election. However, TATY continues to paint out numbers consistent with demand remaining in the superior position to supply. For more than three decades, when TATY is making bottoms in, or near, the red zone surrounding the 140 level these conditions have reflected an ongoing bull price trend. So, currently TATY continues to generate objective numbers, which remain consistent with an ongoing bull trend. No indicator is perfect in this business of dealing with uncertainty, but in the absence of objective information to the contrary, investors will likely continue to be rewarded by being significantly exposed to equities in their asset allocation.

Yes, we are aware of the current dire warnings of the dreaded inverted yield curve, but even if those warning turn out to be accurate, history suggests for such a change to affect equities may take months. We cannot measure what may be, but we do a consistently and accurately measure what is, and for now those measurements are saying the odds favor demand over supply.

SAMMY   —   A FAMILY OF TACTICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

SAMMY recently flashed a buy signal, which is shown by the blue vertical line on the attached second chart above. The stock market has responded with a powerful rally back to the previously identified resistance zone. So this new family of indicators continues to crank out reliable buy signals for tactical intermediate trades, some of which may turn into long term capital gains trades, as we march through time and additional signals are triggered. While testing has shown SAMMY signals to be extremely accurate, investors need to be aware, that the shorter the time frame, the less accurate signals tend to be. So SAMMY will likely have misses from time to time, but its construction will tend to make it a substantially profitable tool over time, if administered by an experienced professional trader with a record of success in navigating the stock market. And, I continue to evolve this family of tactical supply and demand indicators, as testing for the best prototypes never ends.

What you see above is only one prototype of this family, which there are several more representing different variations on the same theme. Over time these protypes will be winnowed down to just one survivor. I can say with some confidence that I know professional traders, which would pay a handsome price to purchase any of the prototypes rejected during the winnowing down process.  SAMMY is shown in the second chart above alone, and in the third chart with the S&P-500 overlaid.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The odds favor the current rally to struggle to overcome the resistance zone it has entered. This struggle will likely take some time to be resolved, but the current status of an array of both strategic and tactical indicators suggest the rally will overcome the resistance, which will then probably setup a renewed assault on new all-time highs. An excursion of the strategic indicator, TATY, into the caution zone surrounding the 115-125 level would substantially change the outlook for new all-time highs.

 

DISCLAIMER: Optimist Capital LLC, does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this report, nor is any liability assumed for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon such information. The information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and are for general information only. The data used for this report is from sources deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed for accuracy. Past performance is not a guide or guarantee of future performance. Optimist Capital LLC, and any third-party data providers, shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who relied on this publication’s contents, which is provided “as is.” Optimist Capital LLC disclaim any and all express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranties of merchantability, suitability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. Our data and opinions may not be updated as views or information change. Using any graph, chart, formula or other device to assist in deciding which securities to trade or when to trade them presents many difficulties and their effectiveness has significant limitations, including that prior patterns may not repeat themselves continuously or on any particular occasion. In addition, market participants using such devices can impact the market in a way that changes the effectiveness of such device. The information contained in this report may not be published, broadcast, re-written, or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from Optimist Capital LLC.

Jun 10

CORRECTION TO CONTINUE, OR A RENEWED ASSAULT ON ALL-TIME HIGHS?

The interim update published previously alerted investors that the recent mild correction may be nearing an end given the growing positive divergences being registered by both strategic and tactical supply and demand indicators. And, the issuance of a tactical buy signal by the SAMMY family of indicators. The update turned out to be extremely accurate, as the stock market proceeded to rally sharply for the balance of the week. By Friday’s close the first signs of some selling appeared as the S&P-500, and our preferred VOO ETF, had rallied back to marginally exceed the resistance at the 62% retracement level, which is also in the zone where the preceding rebound rally failed after the initial leg down in the correction. Having done some buying during the weakness, and having diagnosed the bottom correctly, what is the strategy and tactics for the days and weeks ahead?

TATY   —   A STRATEGIC FAMILY OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

TATY is shown in the first chart above in yellow with the S&P-500 overlaid in red and blue candle format. During the recent weakness in the price, the Dow gyrated hundreds of points intraday almost every day, as the volatility we had been warning clients about roiled the market. However, as the price went through its violent gymnastics, TATY consistently stripped away the daily noise, and continued to suggest to investors that the big picture strategic view remained favorable. I must admit that given the velocity of some of the Dow moves, I was a bit surprised that TATY only declined marginally, and then bottomed in the red zone, which historically is a sign of strength consistent with a continuing bull trend.

The failure of the violent price moves to drive the premium/discount indicator, found in the bottom panel of the TATY chart, deeply into the discount to “value” zone is a concern, as the strongest bottoms often form, when the discount is forced below the minus eight level. Discounts below minus eight tend to signal that most would be sellers have been driven from the market, and the strong hands (deep pockets) are seizing control. The sharp rally of this past few days is evidence that buyers have seized control of the market, but the shallow discount to value makes me want to watch this indicator carefully now that the price has recovered back to an obvious math and chart resistance level. The implication is the rally may begin to struggle, and need to digest its gains before a renewed assault on new all-time highs. On the contrary, the shallow discount may have left enough would be sellers waiting at resistance to roll the rally over into a test of the recent low, which may actually be a positive development for investors with excess cash.

The second chart above shows an updated view of the daily chart of the VOO ETF, which was shown in the interim update. The rally has been quite persistent, and has now exceeded the math resistance at the VOO 263-4 level mentioned in the update. However, resistance is still evident just a bit higher, where the rebound rally failed previously. Also, please note how the strong positive divergence (bold green line) suggested the price would follow higher, and it has.

SAMMY   —   A FAMILY OF TACTICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

SAMMY is shown above in the third and last chart. The third chart shows SAMMY alone with the recent buy signal shown with a vertical blue line. Since we had already deployed some cash earlier during the correction, I elected to play the odds, and try to do another purchase on our terms on a retest of the low after SAMMY issued the buy signal mentioned in the update. Usually the initial rebound off a low will be tested in a matter of a few days, but unfortunately this time the rally turned out to be so strong it did not look back. However, the price has now reached both math and chart resistance, and only an exceptionally strong rally would likely take out the resistance, and then immediately assault new all-time highs without at least a brief digestion of gains, or even an outright test of the previous low. If the market dials up a pullback, then we shall attempt to take advantage of it for clients with excess cash.

THE BOTTOM LINE

A leg down, or possibly the entire correction, has ended and given way to a strong rally, which has now reached an important zone of resistance. Strategic supply and demand indicators are signaling a continuing favorable balance of demand relative to supply, which implies a renewed assault on new all-time highs, perhaps after a respite to digest the sharp gains of the past week. Given the positive strategic metrics, we shall attempt to add some VOO to accounts with excess cash, if given a relatively low risk trade entry on a digestion of gains pause, or an outright retest of the recent low. A decision to execute a purchase of VOO will be confirmed only to clients and research customers by text or email. Please note that most clients are already invested, but some do have new cash, which needs to be put to work.

 

DISCLAIMER: Optimist Capital LLC, does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this report, nor is any liability assumed for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon such information. The information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and are for general information only. The data used for this report is from sources deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed for accuracy. Past performance is not a guide or guarantee of future performance. Optimist Capital LLC, and any third-party data providers, shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who relied on this publication’s contents, which is provided “as is.” Optimist Capital LLC disclaim any and all express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranties of merchantability, suitability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. Our data and opinions may not be updated as views or information change. Using any graph, chart, formula or other device to assist in deciding which securities to trade or when to trade them presents many difficulties and their effectiveness has significant limitations, including that prior patterns may not repeat themselves continuously or on any particular occasion. In addition, market participants using such devices can impact the market in a way that changes the effectiveness of such device. The information contained in this report may not be published, broadcast, re-written, or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from Optimist Capital LLC.